Wine Investment Market Downturn
Fine wine prices have fallen since their 2022 peak, and a falling market asks different questions of an investor than a rising one. This guide looks at what the correction means, how to judge value without trying to call the bottom, and how we approach buying in a weaker market.
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What the Correction Means for Investors
Fine wine prices have been falling since the autumn of 2022. Decanter reported in June 2026 that the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 had fallen 24.7% from its 2022 peak, and that the major Liv-ex indices were broadly flat in the four months to 30 April 2026 (Decanter, June 2026). A correction of that size changes what is worth buying and at what price, but it does not make every wine good value, because some prices have fallen to a fairer level rather than a cheap one.
In 2025 the Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 fell 2.5% and the broader Liv-ex 1000 fell 4.5%, according to Liv-ex's year-end figures (WineNews, January 2026). The decline slowed through the year, and the major indices were broadly flat in the first four months of 2026 (Decanter, June 2026). Those figures describe a market that has stopped falling quickly rather than one that has started to rise, and they say nothing about where prices go next.
How to Judge Value in a Falling Market
Nobody can say with confidence when a market has reached its low, and we do not try. What we can do is look at the evidence for each wine: how its current price compares with its own trading history, with other vintages from the same producer and with wines of similar standing from other estates.
The more useful question is whether a wine is now priced sensibly for a long hold. A First Growth trading well below its earlier peak may be good value, or it may simply have returned to a level its critical record and production justify, and our analysis of Bordeaux after the market correction looks at how to tell the two apart.
Over longer periods the picture is steadier than the last three years suggest. The Liv-ex Fine Wine 100 rose 34.1% in the ten years to the end of 2025 despite the correction, according to the Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index (Decanter, June 2026). That is a record of the past rather than a guide to what comes next, but it is a reminder that the holding period usually matters more than the timing of the purchase.
We hold no stock, so nothing we recommend is shaped by what we need to sell, and in a falling market that often means advising an investor to wait, to buy less or to buy something different. When we do recommend buying, we compare the price with the wine's own history and its peers, favour producers with consistent critical records and deep secondary markets, and keep every wine in bonded storage with its provenance documented.
We are an independent advisory based in Geneva. Our fee is 12% on acquisition, which covers three years of bonded storage and insurance, and 10% on profit, only when there is profit, and every wine is bought in your name. How It Works sets out the process in full.
A lower market is a reason to look carefully, not a reason to hurry. Before committing capital it is worth being clear about how long you intend to hold, how much of your wider wealth the allocation represents and whether you would be comfortable holding through a further fall. If you already own wine, an independent portfolio review is a sensible first step, because the right decision about new purchases depends on what you already hold.
Further Reading on the Market
Frequently Asked Questions
Is now a good time to invest in fine wine?
Prices are lower than at the 2022 peak, which gives a patient investor more choice at sensible prices, but we do not try to time the market. Whether now is right for you depends on how long you can hold, what you already own and how the allocation fits within your wider wealth.
Could prices fall further?
Yes. The major Liv-ex indices were broadly flat in the first four months of 2026, but a flat market can fall again and no one can identify the low point with confidence. We plan every purchase on the assumption that it may be held through further weakness.
Is Burgundy better value than Bordeaux at the moment?
Neither region is better value as a whole. Within each, some producers and vintages are priced more sensibly than others, and the small production of the leading Burgundy domaines means their wines remain hard to buy at any price, so we compare wines individually rather than backing a region.
How long do recoveries take?
There is no reliable timetable. Past corrections have varied in depth and length, which is why we encourage investors to think in terms of a holding period of ten years or more rather than a recovery date.
Should I wait until the market stabilises?
Waiting for certainty usually means paying for it. If a wine is priced sensibly for a long hold, the case for buying it does not depend on the market having turned, and if it is not, a recovery will not make it a better purchase.
How much should I invest during a downturn?
Our minimum is €20,000, but the right amount depends on the size of your wider portfolio, your time horizon and how much liquidity you may need. Building a position over time, rather than committing it all at once, reduces the risk of buying at a poor moment.
What if I need to sell during the recovery?
Fine wine can be sold on the secondary market, but selling into a weak market usually means accepting a lower price, and a sale takes weeks rather than days. Only capital you will not need for several years should be committed, and we plan an exit with every investor from the start.
